Sabahan Opinion For next general Election.

Not the time to seek change for the sake of changing 

By: Mohd Jefri Radius 

SPECULATION is rife that the nation's 13th general election is around the corner. Premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak cum Umno President and Chairman of BN component parties, has the prerogative to announce when the election is due to be held, regardless of whether the promised electoral reforms proposed by the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC), can be implemented.

So far the use of indelible ink and nomination of a person to accompany and to mark the ballot sheets on behalf of the disabled registered voter had been given the green light. Presently, the Premier is making a string of tours nationwide as does his deputy and other members of his Cabinet. The objective is obvious - that the present government aims to continue with more than a simple majority when elections are called anytime from now until April 24, 2013.

A number of straight fights for State and Parliamentary seat between BN and PR in Peninsular Malaysia looks imminent, despite much talk about the emergence of parties and pressure groups forming a "Third Force", and whose support could make or break either the ruling side or the opposition. In Sabah, there is a possibility of many cornered contests taking place in several constituencies. This is in view of there being a string of opposition parties that do not wish to be under the Pakatan Rakyat.

The latest is the Sarawak-based State Reform Party (Star) led by former PKR Vice-President Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan as its Sabah chief and SAPP, once a member of BN spearheaded by former CM Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee.

In neighbouring Sarawak, the focus will only be on parliamentary seats as the State poll was held last April 2011, where local parties in the BN coalition namely (PBB, SPDP, PRS except SUPP) successfully retained most of the rural seats and secured the mandate to continue ruling the State for another five years. Several urban seats were lost to Pakatan Rakyat with DAP taking the major slice of 12 seats and PKR three indicating that the party is making inroads into Sarawak politics. PAS a member of the Pakatan and SNAP, the local party that had opted to stay out of the PR during that particular election, failed to secure any seat.

Strategically, the opposition PR had set a compromising formula in the recent Sarawak polls, whereby only one party was permitted to contest against the BN in any seat depending upon the candidate's suitability relevant to the constituency. As an example, in the predominantly Chinese urban state seat of N.09 - Padungan (23,576 voters) DAP candidate Wong King Wei won the seat defeating BN-SUPP candidate Sim Kiang Chiok with 7,884 majority in the straight fight, while PKR and PAS stayed out.

At the recent Umno General Assembly, Najib told delegates that the party leadership will only field "winnable candidates" in their respective constituencies. Generally, the definition of the term "winnable candidates" refers to any prospective candidate having the potential to win with the solid backing of the grassroots or constituents apart from fulfilling other criteria upon full screening and evaluation by the respective parties' leaders.

It is worth bearing in mind that in today's scenario, the choice of fielding political candidates with low level academic qualifications is no longer tenable. Politics being a science of government, the prospective candidates must be at least the product of the learned world, in possession of better general knowledge relevant to modern politics, keeping abreast and well updated with current affairs taking place domestically, regionally and globally. Other aspects that need to be considered are of course, the backgrounds of their families, the nature of their personalities and attitudes, their level of exposure and past contributions to the local communities within the respective constituencies.

Are they approachable and cordial and ready to mingle with every strata of the society? Are they truly good by natural character deserving support and willing to serve the people humbly and fairly upon getting the mandate and not merely good as they appear to be during the eve of the election period? Theoretically, if the check list is affirmative, the prospective candidates stand a better chance of winning if chosen. Not surprisingly, as the polls days get closer, be prepared to see certain groups comprising members of a political organisation, believed to have the blessing of some "hidden hands" openly indicate that incumbents in certain constituencies need to be replaced for whatever reason. Their sole intention may be seen by others as a means of attracting the attention of the top party leadership on the status quo of the incumbents.

The irony is their course of action obviously seen as contradicting, bypassing or going against the procedures, which could adversely affect the jurisdiction of the State Party Chief to endorse his recommendations on the potential candidates even before it reaches the desk of the party president for the final say. The Daily Express report on Feb 23, 2012 with the headline "A Mystery Man Behind It: Anifah" is a case in point.

The minor rallies staged by such groups no doubt are democratic and rational only if the incumbent is truly a useless or "sleeping partner" in the Government.

The reality, unless the protesting groups are poorly educated, is that the incumbent has a fine track record that augurs well for his constituents during this term of office as the honourable representative of the people and instrumental in bringing tremendous socio-economic development for the general well being and prosperity of his constituents.

Then the sensible question that need be asked is whether there is any justification to replace such an incumbent. Najib himself had said that "If the winnable candidate is put forth by a group without considering the wishes of the majority of voters that candidate would not succeed." Former Umno Treasurer and Finance Minister during the era of Mahathir, Tun Daim Zainuddin, too, had some relevant message for many Umno members to ponder at all time especially during election period. He said "Indiscipline among party members can destroy the party. We lost many seats in the 2008 general election because of this.

We lost because of our own weakness due to disunity and not because of the opposition strength" (DE Feb 12th, 2012).

Statistically, the latest figures of young Malaysian citizens who have yet to register as voters thoughout the country is about 3.3 million, including 311,884 in Sabah. In the 12th GE, no one could deny the fact that a number of new faces regardless of their political affiliation had won with landslide victory in their respective constituencies particularly in the peninsula through the support of younger generation voters.

BN-MCA candidate Chue Tee Yong (MP for Kulai), and PR-PKR Nurulizzah Anwar Ibrahim (MP for Lembah Pantai) are cases in point. Other factors might also have contributed to their victories. The opinion of Dr Jeniri Amir, political analyst at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) is worth taking into account as well. He said "BN can still win, but it would not be as easy as in 2008, while there is also a need for the ruling coalition to identify candidates earlier and put up as many new faces as possible."

The BN leadership has set a strategic winning formula via reasonable allocation of seats to every component party in the country both at State and Parliamentary level, by virtue of the studies made on the existing racial compositions and statistics of voters within every constituency.

In the 12th GE four years ago, Sabah BN only lost one Parliamentary seat to DAP out of the 25 seats contested. Umno won 13 seats, PBS - 3, Upko - 4, PBRS -1 (uncontested) LDP - 1, SAPP -2 (now in opposition) and DAP - 1.

BN, too, had won almost all the 60 State Legislative Assembly seats it contested in the GE held simulataneously. Umno won 34 seats, PBS - 12 seats, Upko - 4, LDP - 3, SAPP - 4, PBRS - 1, MCA - 1and DAP - 1.

On the Sabah politcal chessboard, BN will certainly stick to the same formula or gambit versus the PR (PKR, DAP & PAS) and other opposition parties like Star and SAPP, etc.

Unlike PKR, DAP and PAS, which need a consensus before any party could field its candidate in a particular constituency be it at State or Parliament level, the Opposition parties outside the Pakatan Rakyat eg Star and SAPP do have the advantage of having a free hand to decide the number of seats they wish to contest as they are not governed by any restrictions. Which means both Star and SAPP could field candidates in all State or Parliamentary seats.

Of course, the respective parties do have their strategies and will definitely focus on constituencies where they stand good chance of winning based on grass roots feedback and the availability of effective and operational election machinery, which is the vital factor to consider during the crux of the campaigning period.

Based on talk in most towns in the Interior Residency, there is strong possibility that the opposition party Star which has a number of KDM professional leaders will intensify its effort to field candidates in constituencies currently held by PBS, Upko, PBRS as the current incumbents are mostly from the same stock or communities and so forth, This would only be known on nomination day.

However, it is more likely that the local opposition in Sabah may have to adopt an election strategy it deems suitable. Star, SAPP and Usno are said to come under one umbrella of the United Borneo Alliance (UBA). According to Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, the Sabah Chairman for Star, are now in discussion with PR to incorporate a united opposition to face the BN.

The question now is whether Sabah BN is able to achieve better or retain its current seats which the coalition won both at State and Parliamentary level during the 12th GE, so at to continue administering the State with fresh mandate which is crucial to effect further socio-economic growth in Sabah under the dynamic leadership of CM Datuk Seri Musa Aman, the man some insist has the "Midas Touch"

Consequently, do we really need to change the political landscape of Sabah without giving second thoughts deeply and seriously? Seeking change for the sake of change would not benefit the people. Sabahans have undergone dark days in the past and certainly want never to return to those eras.